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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also witness the Aussie side host a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have almost every player near a Test team being over 30, except for young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Younger bowlers have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a far greater shift with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what new injuries the opening match may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in series and a history of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the series may see the primary four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that train approaching, rolling round the corner, and England hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.