A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
