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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.