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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|