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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.